Islamabad: Pakistan’s fertility rate has declined significantly from six live births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 in 2024, according to the latest United Nations World Fertility Report 2024. Despite this downward trend, Pakistan is projected to become the third most populous country in the world by 2050, surpassing the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.
According to the 2023 census, Pakistan’s population has surged to 241 million, a dramatic increase from 31 million in 1947. The UN forecasts that the country’s population will exceed 380 million by 2050, even as the fertility rate is expected to further decline to 2.5 by 2054.
Government Efforts and Challenges
In response to rapid population growth, the Pakistani government has implemented various strategies, including:
- Family planning initiatives
- Distribution of contraceptives
- Educational campaigns, especially in rural areas
- Partnerships with international organizations like the UN Population Fund
However, cultural and religious barriers, gender inequality, and limited access to education continue to hinder progress in population control efforts.
Global Fertility Trends
The report highlights that while several countries had fertility rates above six births per woman in 1994, they have since declined:
- Pakistan: 3.6 (from 6.0 in 1994)
- Ethiopia: 3.9 (from 6.5)
- Nigeria: 4.4 (from 6.4)
Despite these reductions, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are expected to contribute 43% of global births in 2024.
The findings indicate a continued global decline in fertility rates, though countries like Pakistan still maintain levels above the replacement rate. The challenge for Pakistan remains balancing economic growth, social development, and sustainable population management in the coming decades.
